Microsoft (MSFT) recently announced a solid earnings report (see conference call transcript here) which caused the shares to trade up to about $29.46 on January 27. Since then, the shares have dropped to about $27. I think Microsoft shares are attractive to start accumulating now and on any additional declines. There is a lot to like about MSFT shares. Earnings estimates are about $2.55 for 2011 and $2.76 for 2012. This gives MSFT shares a pe ratio of only about 10 times earnings. Compared to other software and technology companies like Autodesk (ADKS), which sell for much higher pe ratios, this is an attractive valuation. You can read more about why I think certain tech companies like Autodesk are overvalued here.
Microsoft has a huge amount of cash on the balance sheet of about $40 billion. This balance sheet strength will allow them to pursue growth opportunities in the future with new products and possible acquisitions and it will allow them to reinvest in their current product line with updates and improvements. Microsoft's dividend of 64 cents per share per year offers a current yield of about 2.4%
The 200 day moving average for MSFT shares is about $25.82 and the 50 dma is about $27.80. Based on this, I think it's safe to start building a position in MSFT and continue to add on any dips down to about $25.82 (the 200 day moving average), where the stock should have strong support.
Microsoft has some exciting new products to drive growth. The Kinect for the Xbox shows that Microsoft can still innovate. The Kinect allows people to use their bodies to control and play games without a hand held or other controller. The Kinect has been highly rated by consumers and is selling well. Microsoft also recently announced a strategic partnership for mobile phones with Nokia (NOK). There is going to be substantial growth in the mobile phone business in the coming years and although Apple (AAPL) is a clear winner so far, there will probably be plenty of business for more than one company.
Overall, MSFT shares offer future growth potential, a dividend that is likely to rise, a fantastic balance sheet and a low pe ratio which makes these shares a lower risk way to invest in technology.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in MSFT over the next 72 hours.
The only downside I see is their enormous float: 7.41 Billion shares! That dilutes their strong earnings and balance sheet quite a bit.
I've owned MSFT on and off since the day it went public in 1986. And all these years the company has been a cash cow. However for the past 10 years the stock has been dead money. I think MSFT should up its dividend from the current 22%. No one buys MSFT for capital gains anymore. At least give income investors a reason to buy the stock, Mr. Ballmer.
MSFTs playbook has 2 parts
1: Release a new version of office or windows that looks different to convince customers that its new.
2: Wait for someone to make a successful product and copy them.
Still they should be able to cover the dividend for quite sometime.
(1) The entertainment business is a strong growth business. My personal estimate is that if MSFT sells 15M Kinects in the first 14 months on market (e.g,. through end of CY 2011) it will yield around $1.5-2B in Net Income, when you count pull through on XBox, XBOX Live subscriptions (including the new family pack subscriptions), and Kinect games from Microsoft's own game studios (most families will buy multiple, and they are $60 each).
Additionally, XBOX and Kinect games is just "the tip of the spear" for Microsoft in the living room. First, XBOX Live and Kinect create a fantastic entertainment experience for watching movies through Zune and Netflix, and Zune video download business is growing fast (i would guess mostly driven by XBOX Live vs. Zune device itself). Second, the Kinect video conferencing via your TV looks like a winner. It won't generate much direct revenue, but it gives people a reason to keep coming back to XBOX Live and Kinect on a regular basis.
(2) Advertising business is a growth business. Bing continues to gain marketshare (up to about 27% in January with Yahoo thrown in). This is a high fixed cost business, many of hte investments required for success have been made, the search engine relevancy is now equal to -- or by some measures better -- than Google these days. As share climbs, losses for the unit will narrow and should then turn positive. The online ad business is *larger* than the software business, macro trends continue to see more ad spend moving online, MSFT still have relatively low marketshare, but now has a compelling product/service, and growth trend in share, and there's still lot's of room to run.
Additionally, MSFT has a nicely diversified ad business, with display ads on MSN, XBox Live, inside games, and on both search and display on phones -- all in addition to Bing on the desktop. The MSFT-Nokia deal seems set to make Bing the default search engine on *all* Nokia phone (not just smart phones). We don't see Nokia in US much, but globally is larger than Android. This will likely be a huge win for Microsoft's mobile search business. The revenue and profit implications of mobile ad/mobile search business are unclear to me. It's definitely a positive, but question is whether it's a mild positive or significant positive.
(3) Microsoft's cloud businesses (there are multiple - email, crm, office, collaboration, cloud platform, etc) - are all seeing rapid innovation, new capabilites coming online. Hard to get a read on level of adoption and contribution to profit, but to the degree this has historically (last few years) been a threat to the Microsoft shareholder, Microsoft is now in a much different position. The cloud was once a reason to be concerned about MSFT stock over the long term, and now MSFT has industry-leading capabilities in many ways, and the rise of cloud computing looks like a growth driver.
Now, some might say margins will go down in the cloud vs. software, so the trend is still a negative influence on MSFT shares. This analysis is only half right, as the margin pressure is likely more than offset by an expansion in Microsoft's addressable market for technology spend. For example, if you're just selling software ("old" Microsoft), you can compete for maybe 5-10% of technology spend. If you are selling cloud services ("new" Microsoft), you can compete for maybe 25-30% of technology spend. Costs go down for customer, but Microsoft gets a larger slice of the tech spend pie.
I rarely see these three factors discussed or considered in analyses of Microsoft stock, but each offers significant upside potential to owning the stock that I believe is not fully priced in. Add to that the fact that traditional businesses - Windows, Office, and Server and Tools -- all seem to be doing very well, and Microsoft stock looks like a winner to me.
As you can imagine, I'm long Microsoft stock.
1) Mr Gates is selling his shares and that will continue to act as a huge dampener on any large share price increase
2) MSFT has lost the plot in the fast growing space and its very stranglehold on computing and media platforms are all under serious threats.
3) It will continue to be a cash cow but it is still not paying great dividends for all the cash that it is making. New products (not Office, Windows and X-box - all old) that MSFT is dumping billions on have bombed so far.
4) No exciting acquisitions in sight.
5) Lack of good visionary leadership. Ballmer probably continued to bark at his executives but they are leaving and not delivering.
Even if MSFT does go up, there are so many other stocks that will outperform it so why park your money with MSFT.
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Where is MSFT is the rapidly growing cell phone market? This or it's iPad derivatives will become the dominant communications platform and MSFT is well behind the curve. Sure lots of cash and they would have even more if it were not for the lousy acquisitions management made in recent years. The tech world has passed them by.
While it sports tons of cash and no debt on the balance sheet which should lead to healthy forward dividend growth, I think equity growth potential is probably a bit mute. Forays into gaming, wireless, and other areas are helpful, but its core computer software business is quite mature.
Because of its stronghold on computer operating, I like MSFT better than say a CSCO in tech land. If you're willing to go a tad further out on the risk/reward scale, I think you can do much better from a total return basis over the longer term however. MSFT stock has treaded water for some time now...I don't see much of a catalyst for a sharp move up.