Friday, September 27, 2013

Calculating A Stock's Fair Value Based On Future Growth Expectations: Part 2A - Seeking Alpha

Calculating A Stock's Fair Value Based On Future Growth Expectations: Part 2A - Seeking Alpha: Introduction

In part one of this two-part series I focused primarily on calculating the intrinsic value of a common stock based on an analysis and review of historical information and data. Although I strongly believe that there is much that investors can learn by studying the past, I even more strongly believe that since we can only invest in the future, that it is also implicit that we embrace a rational method of forecasting.

CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS): What's The Correct Discount Rate To Use? Part 2B - Seeking Alpha

CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS): What's The Correct Discount Rate To Use? Part 2B - Seeking Alpha: Introduction

One of the most widely-accepted and utilized methods of valuing a business in today's world of modern finance is discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Obviously, in order to calculate valuation, practitioners must rely on mathematical formulas. However, the challenge with utilizing mathematical formulas to determine the net present value (NPV) of a future stream of income is in determining the proper inputs. Consequently, the accuracy of our result is subject to the principle "garbage in garbage out." In other words, our calculations will only be good as the data inputs we use when running our formulas.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Dividend Growth Portfolio: Semi-Annual Review [Intel Corporation, AT&T Inc., McDonald's Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PepsiCo, Inc., Omega Healthcare Investors Inc, Lorillard Inc., Darden Restaurants, Inc., Hasbro, Inc., BHP Billiton plc (ADR)] - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Growth Portfolio: Semi-Annual Review [Intel Corporation, AT&T Inc., McDonald's Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PepsiCo, Inc., Omega Healthcare Investors Inc, Lorillard Inc., Darden Restaurants, Inc., Hasbro, Inc., BHP Billiton plc (ADR)] - Seeking Alpha: Disclosure: I am long BBL, HAS, MCD, T, CVX, KMP, OHI, LNT, PEP, DRI, LO, PM. (More...)

I have a confession to make. I basically skipped the April, 2013 Portfolio Review for my public Dividend Growth Portfolio (DGP). I got caught up in the excitement of the DGP's 5th anniversary and kind of let the formal Portfolio Review slide. This is a catch-up.

For those not familiar, the DGP is a public, real-money, real-time portfolio that I launched in June, 2008. It is public and transparent to demonstrate the results that can be achieved with the dividend growth strategy. Questions are suggestions are welcome, but ultimately I am the CIO (Chief Investment Officer) for the DGP, and all decisions about it are mine.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

How To Calculate The Intrinsic Value Of Your Common Stocks: Part 1 [VF Corp] - Seeking Alpha

How To Calculate The Intrinsic Value Of Your Common Stocks: Part 1 [VF Corp] - Seeking Alpha: Every investor in common stocks is faced with the challenge of knowing when to buy, sell or hold. Additionally, this challenge will be approached differently by the true investor than it would by a speculator. But since I know very little about speculation (trading or market timing), this article will be focused on assisting true investors desirous of a sound and reliable method that they can trust and implement when attempting to make these important buy, sell or hold investing decisions.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Dividend Challengers: 22 Increases Expected By November 30 [Visa Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc., Accenture Plc, Covidien plc, The Kroger Co., DeVry Inc., Pall Corporation, A. Schulman Inc] - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Challengers: 22 Increases Expected By November 30 [Visa Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc., Accenture Plc, Covidien plc, The Kroger Co., DeVry Inc., Pall Corporation, A. Schulman Inc] - Seeking Alpha: In compiling the Dividend Champions list I get to see which companies are nearing the anniversaries of their previous dividend increases. Since most of these firms raise their payout about the same time every year, I can say with some confidence that they are likely to do so again. I have modified the Expected Increase series to reflect a more SA-friendly format by separating the Champions (25 or more years of higher dividends), Contenders (10-24 years), and Challengers (5-9 years) into distinct groupings, so please look for the other articles, which I hope will be published about the same time.

Dividend Champions: 17 Increases Expected By The End Of November - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Champions: 17 Increases Expected By The End Of November - Seeking Alpha: Disclosure: I am long RPM, AFL, EMR, TNC. (More...)

In compiling the Dividend Champions list, I get to see which companies are nearing the anniversaries of their previous dividend increases. Since most of these companies raise their payout about the same time every year, I can say with some confidence that they are likely to do so again. I have modified the Expected Increase series to reflect a more SA-friendly format by separating the Champions (25 or more years of higher dividends), Contenders (10-24 years), and Challengers (five to nine years) into distinct groupings, so please look for the other articles.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Invest In Stocks With A Margin Of Safety To Reduce Risk And Enhance Returns - Seeking Alpha

Invest In Stocks With A Margin Of Safety To Reduce Risk And Enhance Returns - Seeking Alpha: Introduction

Of all of the many sound investing principles that legendary teacher and investor Ben Graham put forward, he believed that his concept of "margin of safety" was the most important of all. This investment lesson was so deeply ingrained into the mind of Ben Graham's most famous student, Warren Buffett, that he created his two most important rules of sound investing. Rule number one: Never lose money. Rule number two: Never forget rule number one. Clearly, both of these renowned sages understood the importance of minimizing risk, especially when investing in equities. The following quote from Ben's famous book The Intelligent Investor corroborates and summarizes my point: