Friday, September 27, 2013

Calculating A Stock's Fair Value Based On Future Growth Expectations: Part 2A - Seeking Alpha

Calculating A Stock's Fair Value Based On Future Growth Expectations: Part 2A - Seeking Alpha: Introduction

In part one of this two-part series I focused primarily on calculating the intrinsic value of a common stock based on an analysis and review of historical information and data. Although I strongly believe that there is much that investors can learn by studying the past, I even more strongly believe that since we can only invest in the future, that it is also implicit that we embrace a rational method of forecasting.

CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS): What's The Correct Discount Rate To Use? Part 2B - Seeking Alpha

CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS): What's The Correct Discount Rate To Use? Part 2B - Seeking Alpha: Introduction

One of the most widely-accepted and utilized methods of valuing a business in today's world of modern finance is discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Obviously, in order to calculate valuation, practitioners must rely on mathematical formulas. However, the challenge with utilizing mathematical formulas to determine the net present value (NPV) of a future stream of income is in determining the proper inputs. Consequently, the accuracy of our result is subject to the principle "garbage in garbage out." In other words, our calculations will only be good as the data inputs we use when running our formulas.

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Dividend Growth Portfolio: Semi-Annual Review [Intel Corporation, AT&T Inc., McDonald's Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PepsiCo, Inc., Omega Healthcare Investors Inc, Lorillard Inc., Darden Restaurants, Inc., Hasbro, Inc., BHP Billiton plc (ADR)] - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Growth Portfolio: Semi-Annual Review [Intel Corporation, AT&T Inc., McDonald's Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PepsiCo, Inc., Omega Healthcare Investors Inc, Lorillard Inc., Darden Restaurants, Inc., Hasbro, Inc., BHP Billiton plc (ADR)] - Seeking Alpha: Disclosure: I am long BBL, HAS, MCD, T, CVX, KMP, OHI, LNT, PEP, DRI, LO, PM. (More...)

I have a confession to make. I basically skipped the April, 2013 Portfolio Review for my public Dividend Growth Portfolio (DGP). I got caught up in the excitement of the DGP's 5th anniversary and kind of let the formal Portfolio Review slide. This is a catch-up.

For those not familiar, the DGP is a public, real-money, real-time portfolio that I launched in June, 2008. It is public and transparent to demonstrate the results that can be achieved with the dividend growth strategy. Questions are suggestions are welcome, but ultimately I am the CIO (Chief Investment Officer) for the DGP, and all decisions about it are mine.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

How To Calculate The Intrinsic Value Of Your Common Stocks: Part 1 [VF Corp] - Seeking Alpha

How To Calculate The Intrinsic Value Of Your Common Stocks: Part 1 [VF Corp] - Seeking Alpha: Every investor in common stocks is faced with the challenge of knowing when to buy, sell or hold. Additionally, this challenge will be approached differently by the true investor than it would by a speculator. But since I know very little about speculation (trading or market timing), this article will be focused on assisting true investors desirous of a sound and reliable method that they can trust and implement when attempting to make these important buy, sell or hold investing decisions.

Monday, September 16, 2013

Dividend Challengers: 22 Increases Expected By November 30 [Visa Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc., Accenture Plc, Covidien plc, The Kroger Co., DeVry Inc., Pall Corporation, A. Schulman Inc] - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Challengers: 22 Increases Expected By November 30 [Visa Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc., Accenture Plc, Covidien plc, The Kroger Co., DeVry Inc., Pall Corporation, A. Schulman Inc] - Seeking Alpha: In compiling the Dividend Champions list I get to see which companies are nearing the anniversaries of their previous dividend increases. Since most of these firms raise their payout about the same time every year, I can say with some confidence that they are likely to do so again. I have modified the Expected Increase series to reflect a more SA-friendly format by separating the Champions (25 or more years of higher dividends), Contenders (10-24 years), and Challengers (5-9 years) into distinct groupings, so please look for the other articles, which I hope will be published about the same time.

Dividend Champions: 17 Increases Expected By The End Of November - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Champions: 17 Increases Expected By The End Of November - Seeking Alpha: Disclosure: I am long RPM, AFL, EMR, TNC. (More...)

In compiling the Dividend Champions list, I get to see which companies are nearing the anniversaries of their previous dividend increases. Since most of these companies raise their payout about the same time every year, I can say with some confidence that they are likely to do so again. I have modified the Expected Increase series to reflect a more SA-friendly format by separating the Champions (25 or more years of higher dividends), Contenders (10-24 years), and Challengers (five to nine years) into distinct groupings, so please look for the other articles.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Invest In Stocks With A Margin Of Safety To Reduce Risk And Enhance Returns - Seeking Alpha

Invest In Stocks With A Margin Of Safety To Reduce Risk And Enhance Returns - Seeking Alpha: Introduction

Of all of the many sound investing principles that legendary teacher and investor Ben Graham put forward, he believed that his concept of "margin of safety" was the most important of all. This investment lesson was so deeply ingrained into the mind of Ben Graham's most famous student, Warren Buffett, that he created his two most important rules of sound investing. Rule number one: Never lose money. Rule number two: Never forget rule number one. Clearly, both of these renowned sages understood the importance of minimizing risk, especially when investing in equities. The following quote from Ben's famous book The Intelligent Investor corroborates and summarizes my point:

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Common Sense Strategies For Mitigating Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 2 - Seeking Alpha

Common Sense Strategies For Mitigating Risk In Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 2 - Seeking Alpha: In part one of this two-part series titled: How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1, I primarily focused on how risk is thought about and dealt with in today's so-called world of modern finance theory. As I stated in the first article, my objective was not to denigrate what is commonly referred to as MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory). Instead, my goal was to establish how risk is commonly dealt with in the modern world of finance, in order to contrast it against what I coined as "Ancient Portfolio Reality."

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Considering High-DGR Dividend Growth Stocks - Seeking Alpha

Considering High-DGR Dividend Growth Stocks - Seeking Alpha: There is a cohort of dividend growth stocks that have always fallen below my minimum threshold of 2.7% yield, but which have high dividend growth rates that make them attractive to some investors. These stocks come up often in comments and portfolio holdings as among the favorite dividend growth stocks.

These high dividend growth rate (DGR) issues seem particularly attractive to younger investors, who often feel that with several decades of compounding ahead of them, high DGRs are more important than high yields. They feel that they have plenty of time to develop excellent dividend streams. Examples of names that typically come up are IBM (IBM), Wal-Mart (WMT), and Exxon-Mobil (XOM).

Monday, September 2, 2013

'Overdue' Dividend Increases: Which Streaks Might End Soon [Intel Corporation, Dynex Capital Inc, TECO Energy, Inc., CCFNB Bancorp Inc] - Seeking Alpha

'Overdue' Dividend Increases: Which Streaks Might End Soon [Intel Corporation, Dynex Capital Inc, TECO Energy, Inc., CCFNB Bancorp Inc] - Seeking Alpha: In compiling the Dividend Champions list (found here) I get to see which companies are nearing the anniversaries of their previous dividend increases. Most of these firms raise their payout about the same time every year, but some companies go longer before boosting their dividends, and this can raise concerns about their streaks of increases.

How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1 - Seeking Alpha

How Investors Can Mitigate Their Portfolio Risk In Today's Tumultuous And Volatile World: Part 1 - Seeking Alpha: I believe this question is one of the most important questions that investors need to have answered. This is especially true for retired investors whose lifestyles depend on the incomes their portfolios provide. But, in addition to income, safety, or stated differently, risk, is also a critical consideration. Moreover, on the surface this may seem like a relatively straightforward question to answer. However, there are much deeper issues that this question conjures up. Therefore, in order to answer this question most effectively the concept of risk must be defined, understood and dealt with in its totality.

Dividend Champions For September 2013 [Oracle Corporation, AstraZeneca plc (ADR), Kinross Gold Corporation (USA), BCE Inc. (USA), Aqua America Inc, Murphy Oil Corporation, American States Water Co, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (ADR)] - Seeking Alpha

Dividend Champions For September 2013 [Oracle Corporation, AstraZeneca plc (ADR), Kinross Gold Corporation (USA), BCE Inc. (USA), Aqua America Inc, Murphy Oil Corporation, American States Water Co, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (ADR)] - Seeking Alpha: isclosure: I am long WTR. (More...)

The Dividend Champions spreadsheet and PDF have been updated through 8/30/13 and are available here. Note that all references to Champions mean companies that have paid higher dividends for at least 25 straight years; Contenders have streaks of 10-24 years; Challengers have streaks of 5-9 years. "CCC" refers to the universe of Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.