Friday, February 18, 2011

Exelon: Powerful Yield and Earnings Growth - Seeking Alpha

Exelon: Powerful Yield and Earnings Growth - Seeking Alpha

As investors continue their hunt for dividend yield in this market, many yields are coming down due to price appreciation. In addition, investors have been willing to take on more and more risk in order to juice returns in their portfolio. Investors searching for high yield with low risk should look no further than Exelon Corporation (EXC).

Exelon is a utilities holding company based in Chicago, Illinois. Exelon was founded in 1887. The company generates electricity through nuclear, fossil, and hydroelectric generation. Exelon has approximately 3.8 million electricity customers in northern Illinois and 1.6 million electricity customers in southeastern Pennsylvania, as well as 485,000 natural gas customers in Pennsylvania. The company is the largest generator of nuclear power in the United States, operating 17 nuclear reactors. Exelon generates approximately 20% of all nuclear power in the U.S.

Exelon is a dividend stock, offering a yield of 5.1%. Despite the high dividend yield, the share price has not been rewarded this year. Over the past 12 months the stock is down 7.3%. Exelon has grown its dividend at a 5.1% annualized rate over the past five years. In addition, Exelon's free cash flow has grown at an annualized rate of 9.7% over the past five years. During the same period the company increased revenues and earnings per share at an annualized rate of 4% and 22%, respectively.

MetricEXC
Market Cap27.3 B
Recent Price$41.19
Forward PE10.17
Dividend Yield5.10%
5 Year Div. Growth Rate5.60%
Price/Book2.49
Price/Cash Flow4.96
Return on Equity23.43%
Debt/Equity1.1
Revenue TTM$18.64 B
Operating Cash Flow FYE$5.24 B
Capex FYE$3.32 B
Capex/Cash Flow FYE0.63
5 Year Rev. Growth Rate4.00%
5 Year Cash Flow Growth Rate9.70%
5 Year Earnings Growth Rate22.40%
Net Profit Margin13.75%
Current Assets$6.40 B
Return on Assets4.91%
Long-term Debt$12.00 B

Table Data provided by Charles Schwab & Co.

Exelon is undervalued, trading at 10.6 times earnings versus the sector trading at 17 times earnings. The stock trades at only 5 times cash flow. Even though Exelon operates in a very cost intensive business it certainly earns enough cash to sustain its dividend yield. Exelon's payout ratio is a manageable 54%. Analyst's opinion on the stock is mixed, 5 analysts rate the stock a strong buy or buy, 13 rate the stock a hold, and 4 rate the stock an underperform.

Exelon is at an advantage over competitors. Because of the large nuclear fleet its generation costs are lower. In addition, Exelon is in a good position if the U.S. Government implements carbon emissions regulation. Exelon plans to expand its nuclear generation capability by 1,300 - 1,500 MW within eight years. The expansion will occur through upgrades to the existing nuclear fleet as well as development of new projects.

Exelon is a well-run energy provider. With its nuclear fleet, the company is in an excellent position to benefit from clean energy regulation. Exelon hasn't participated in the stock market rally over the past two years. I expect this will change as investors search for higher yields. The stock offers an attractive risk/reward value. Downside risk to the stock should remain limited. Exelon will continue to grow cash flow and revenue to support its dividend. Investors should look to Exelon to power a portion of their portfolio.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in EXC over the next 72 hours.

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18 Comments
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  • Thanks for the article on Exelon. We're shareholders. We recently wrote that it's one of the top 10 dividend kings for 2011. You can read why here:seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Feb 17 02:20 PMReply! Report abuse+4-2
  • IU, excellent article. It is a dividend king, that's for sure.
    Feb 17 02:21 PMReply! Report abuse+3-1
  • Is it just me, or does the share price always plummet when the stock goes ex-div?
    Feb 17 02:35 PMReply! Report abuse+30
  • Yep, so that's when you buy. "Dividend capture" is way overrated.
    Feb 18 09:55 AMReply! Report abuse+30
  • Well I don't know about "plummet", but future dividend expectations are indeed part of the share price and near term unpaid dividends are worth more. Once they're paid out, they aren't part of the share value any more -- you just look ahead to the next quarter.

    Also, the writer needs to be careful applying a generic PE benchmark to the entire sector; you have merchant, regulated and mixed (of which Exelon is the latter). They sit in one of the worst regulatory jurisdictions (IL) and on their unreg side have capital heavily tied up in nukes at a time when gas-fired gen is dirt cheap and CO2 still seems far from being an economic factor. Could this all change? Sure, but the present valuation doesn't seem out of line with risks.

    Disclosure: no positions
    Feb 17 03:12 PMReply! Report abuse+60
  • These are very cogent comments. I, too, believe that the present valuation is about right. Obviously the author disagrees. Certainly time will tell and the market will vote. Illinois is a tough regulatory jurisdiction, but Exelon seems to have done well in this regard, judging by its earnings growth. The challenge of lower-cost natural gas-fired generators is a serious one--without the problems of nuclear. In short, good dividend, but a cloudy future. Also no chance of any boost from M&A that is apparent.
    Feb 17 04:33 PMReply! Report abuse+4-1
  • Exelon's cloudy future also includes underfunded pension problems.
    Feb 17 04:39 PMReply! Report abuse+40
  • EXC share price went straight to hell in July of 2008, and strangly it has not recovered.

    It is below its 20 and 50 day SMAs, and only a few pennies above its 200 day. The dividend has not been increased since Nov. 2008.

    EXC has a 5-yr revenue growth rate of only 4%. Thus one must wonder if their 5-yr earnings growth rate of 22.4% may reflect significant cost savings that have run their course.

    The author paints a very rosy picture, however EXC is not a small under-covered stock ...thus one must ask why EXC has not advanced in the recovery that has doubled the S&P500?

    Utilities generally have high capital borrowing costs, and consequently their share prices suffer when interest rates are rising (or expected to rise).

    What does it mean that the utility index has significantly outperformed EXC...for the last 2 yrs, the index is up 20%, and EXC down -15%...for the last year, the index is up 8%, and EXC down -8%...for the last month, the index is down -1%, and EXC is down -4%...why is that?

    Certainly EXC is cheap. Does that mean it is a good value?

    According to Yahoo, 22 analyst cover EXC, together they rate it a 2.8 of 5.0 (which is a hold at best, and is by no measure a good rating.
    Feb 17 05:41 PMReply! Report abuse+80
  • @richjoy ... I own EXC but I can't dispute your analysis. I prefer that my companies raise their dividends and I continue to reinvest those dividends for now.

    I may sell EXC after the next dividend payment. I'm looking at PNY as a replacement. The yield is a little lower but they have a long history of increasing dividends. Their streak is at 31 years and counting. They are due to announce another increase, I believe.

    What I like about PNY is that if you reinvest the dividends, you get a 5% discount on the share price. That adds up over time as it allows you to get more bang for the buck by purchasing additional shares.

    A couple of other companies that I own who provide a 5% discount on the purchase price if you reinvest are EPD and HCN.
    Feb 17 07:45 PMReply! Report abuse+3-1
  • The title speaks of earnings growth. That must be in the past because if they earn in the low $4 range this year they won't see that level again till 2014 or 2015. It may not be expensive but sometimes things are cheap for a reason.
    Feb 17 06:40 PMReply! Report abuse00
  • As most commentors on this article are bearish, I believe this reflects the fact that their arguments, although valid, are built into the current share price. Let me be clear, I don't expect the share price to take off like a rocket. This is more of a long-term investment that will appreciate over time. I would be willing to wait for the long-term appreciation given the 5.1% dividend yield. The downside risk at this point is limited.
    Feb 17 07:44 PMReply! Report abuse+60
  • Agreed. When you buy at rock bottom in a bull market there's usually just one way to go. Although the share price has had negative growth this year it's up 8% in my portfolio. Unless there is a dividend cut or I find a better place to park my cash I'm hanging on.
    Feb 18 10:00 AMReply! Report abuse00
  • I too, have been looking at Exelon for the better part of two years, but somehow feel it's not moving up for some good reasons I cannot figure out.

    Someone mentioned pension underfunding. Another mentioned a tough regulatory environment in Illinois, perhaps there is a large amount of cap-ex that is looming with the aging nuke fleet?

    If this were indeed a good buy, one would think that just ONE well known utility analyst would come to the fore and issue a strong buy recommendation?
    Feb 18 09:56 AMReply! Report abuse+10
  • The good reason why it isn't going up is that earnings are going down. The reason is that 80+% of the company's earnings power is from unregulated generation. That derives its price from the power market which in many ways reflects the natural gas market as in many markets natural gas sets the price on the margin. So in 2007 + 2008 when natural was $7+ power prices were high and EXC was earning $4.31 and $4.20 and people thought gas and power prices would rise forever so they were willing to pay 15-20 X for those earnings. EXC also hedges most of their power prices in the forward market so even as gas prices and power prices dropped EXC wasn't hurt as they had locked in to high prices. That is why they earned about $4 in 2009, 2010 + will in 2011. However in 2012-2014 they will earn closer to $3 so at 14 X that number the stock may not be expensive but it isn't cheap like it looks on 2011. In fact if EXC were unhedged (they used to call it open EBITDA in 2007 when they wanted to convince everyone they had $7.50 in earnings power) in 2011 the earnings would be in the $2.75-2.90 range. That is the reason.
    Feb 18 10:12 AMReply! Report abuse+30
  • Thank you Bill -- a look at your bio, combined with the depth of your comment, strongly suggests you are quite knowledgeable about EXC's prospects.
    Feb 18 10:18 AMReply! Report abuse0-1
  • Thank you I appreciate the comment. I would warn you to a degree that of the areas of energy I cover I do feel utilities would be my weakest area as I focus more on smaller E & Ps and service names. Though I do follow the commodity markets closely.
    Feb 18 11:29 AMReply! Report abuse00
  • Thank you Bill and Richjoy for some great analysis. I looked at EXC in my screener and was surprised at its somewhat high PEG and Price/FreeCashFlow numbers. I did like, though, the fact that it's rather healthy dividend was being supported by only a 54% payout ratio. I can see Frank's point that this might be a good contrarian dividend play but, like Hat_Trick, I am rather skittish of such positions when major analysts are backing away from them. Consensus is down to a Hold from a Buy over the six months. I'll put it on my long term watch list.
    Feb 18 11:21 AMReply! Report abuse00
  • I've owned EXC for a bit over 10 years, and spent most of that time dislocating my shoulder by patting myself on the back as the stock nearly tripled in value. Then came 2008, and reality set in. Since then, I've held on, waiting for the stock to come back, but fully realizing it won't come all the way. I'm satisfied with Excelon's performance since 2009, and I'll continue to hold. With the current emphasis on converting power generation from coal to natural gas or "green" technologies (please don't let me get started about the impracticality or undesirability of most of them), natural gas is bound to increase in price as demand rises. I believe that those who favor the green energy sources will ultimately see that nuclear is the most practical and most readily available solution to carbon emissions. Thus, Excelon is well-placed to take advantage of this.

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